Market Context

UK residential HPI · 55+ years of ONS data · 13 regions · historical crash analysis

Data as of May 2026·Source: ONS / Land Registry UK HPI
UK Avg Price£303,199as of May 2026
12-Month Change+2.7%nominal, ONS HPI
5-Year Change+20.7%nominal, ONS HPI
All-Time Avg Price£106,6041968 – May 2026
% Positive Months75%696 months of data
Data Points696monthly, 12 regions

Regional HPI — Average House Price

ONS UK House Price Index · source: Analysis Jan 2024

Historical Crash Overlay

Indexed to 100 at crash peak · x-axis = one tick per year · overlaid on Fable's 55-month hold

Peak
Sept 1989
£60,701 (= index 100)
Trough
Jan 1993
£53,106
Peak-to-Trough
-12.5%
nominal HPI
Full RecoveryWhen prices return to the pre-crash peak (index = 100). Capital losses from the crash are fully erased in nominal terms. Note: this is NOT the same as "Tenant Exits Open" — see below for why.
91 months
to nominal peak (index = 100)

Index: 100 = crash peak price. Values below 100 = still below peak. Values above 100 = recovered beyond peak. Cyan dashed = Fable's planned exit (+55m). Green dashed = ramp-adjusted average purchase price (Fable deploys over 9 months, buying into the decline — average entry is below 100). Amber zone = refinancing window.

Fable Portfolio Stress Test — 1989–1993 Crash
HPI over 55m hold: -2.2% p.a. vs base +3.5%
The annualised house price growth rate if this historical crash repeated during Fable's 55-month hold period. Calculated from the crash peak (month 0) to month +55. Fable's base case assumes +3.5% p.a. HPI growth.
HPI assumption delta: -5.7% p.a.
The gap between the crash scenario HPI (-2.2% p.a.) and Fable's base case (+3.5% p.a.). A negative delta means lower exit values — both tenant exercise prices and institutional sale values fall. This feeds directly into fund IRR and equity multiple.
Indicative IRR impact: -2.8% (approx.)
Rough estimate only. Rule of thumb: each 1pp reduction in annual HPI growth reduces fund IRR by ~0.5pp, because house price appreciation drives exit proceeds. The actual IRR impact depends on conversion rates and the debt structure — see the Sensitivity Matrix on the IC Summary page for the full two-variable analysis.
Why “Full Recovery” ≠ “Tenant Exits Open”: Full recovery means prices return to the pre-crash peak (index = 100). Tenant exits open when prices reach 10% above Fable's purchase price — which is below the peak, because Fable deploys over 9 months into the early decline. In this scenario, Fable's ramp-average entry is  97.2, so the exercise threshold is 106.9 — that is 6.9 points above the pre-crash peak. Tenants only exercise when genuinely in the money, which means meaningful conversions resume only once the market has grown beyond its previous high.
Exit vs avg entry: 90.3 vs 97.2 (index)
Compares portfolio index at planned exit (month +55) against the ramp-adjusted average purchase price. Fable deploys evenly over 9 months into a declining market, so the average entry price (97.2) is below the crash peak (100) — a structural advantage. The green dashed line on the chart shows this break-even level.
Refinance window: +30m to break-even (Oct 1996)
At the planned exit (month +55) asset values are below the average purchase price (index 90.3 vs 97.2). Fable refinances the portfolio debt and holds for an additional 30 months until prices recover. Rental income continues to service the debt throughout. The amber shaded zone on the chart shows this window.
Tenant exits open: +96m (Sept 1997)
Tenants exercise when prices reach 10% above Fable's average purchase price — index 106.9. This is intentionally LATER than full market recovery (index = 100), for a structural reason: Fable deploys over 9 months into the early decline, so its average entry (97.2) is below the crash peak. The exercise threshold (106.9) therefore sits 6.9 points above the pre-crash peak. The market must recover fully AND grow beyond its previous high before tenants are genuinely in the money. At this point meaningful conversion activity resumes, driving blended exit proceeds back toward the base case.

Regional Breakdown

ONS HPI stats · Savills capital value forecasts (Jan 2024) · Cyan rows = Fable portfolio regions

RegionLatest Price12m Change5yr Change% +ve Months2024 Fcst2025 Fcst2026 Fcst5yr FcstCumulative total capital return 2022–2026, not annualised. For example, UK +17.4% total over 5 years ≈ +3.3% p.a. Source: Savills Mainstream Capital Value Forecasts, January 2024.
UKUK£303,199+2.7%+20.7%75%+3.0%+3.5%+3.5%+17.4%
London£509,385-3.7%+4.7%67%+1.5%+2.0%+2.0%+8.2%
South East£389,197+1.2%+13.7%71%————
South West£318,134+1.7%+15.0%67%————
East Midlands£251,508+3.2%+18.7%66%————
East of England£352,247+2.3%+14.4%69%————
North East£176,346+5.9%+25.9%58%————
North West£237,219+5.8%+28.5%63%————
Scotland£203,065+4.4%+20.8%49%+3.5%+4.0%+4.0%+20.2%
Wales£231,835+4.2%+24.9%62%+4.0%+4.5%+4.5%+23.1%
West Midlands£268,722+2.2%+24.0%68%————
Yorkshire & Humberside£226,069+4.3%+24.3%68%————
N. Ireland£208,449+6.8%+35.6%27%————
① 5yr Fcst = cumulative total capital return 2022–2026, not annualised (e.g. UK +17.4% total over 5 years ≈ +3.3% p.a.). Source: Savills Mainstream Capital Value Forecasts, January 2024. Historical data: ONS UK HPI (updated monthly via Land Registry open data).

Base data: ONS UK House Price Index (Jan 2024 analysis). Live updates via Land Registry UK HPI open data (updated monthly, 6–8 week lag). Crash scenarios use UK national average prices. Forecasts: Savills Mainstream Capital Value Forecasts, Jan 2024. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.